Cameron Sinking Clarke

Contrary to what much of the press concentrated on, the biggest loser from the rise of Cameron has been Clarke. The Davis campaign has suffered of course, but not nearly as much as that of Big Ken, who is seen as a Wet, much like Cameron. The Clarke camp may not openly say this but they are aware of it.

There is concern in the Clarke camp that the rapid advance of the 39-year-old Mr Cameron could cost Mr Clarke, 65, crucial votes and prevent him reaching the shortlist of two chosen by Tory MPs.

The problem is that whilst some of Davis’s peripheral supporters might switch, the idea that enough could come over is fanciful.

Each candidate needs the support of their core, plus MP’s from other wings. If they fail to win their core supporters, those prepared to cross the line will not make up for that.

A prominent Clarke supporter said: "We are not going to win MPs over from David Cameron or Liam Fox. But David Davis's support is soft.

That admission is pretty close to game over. Cameron is wrapping up much of the modernisers, leaving very little for Ken. It is even possible that he comes fourth in the first round.